7pc increase in imports likely

ISLAMABAD: The government has projected a seven per cent increase in the import bill for oil and eatables for 2013-14 from a year ago, mainly owing to rising trade deficit of the country.
These projections would depend on price trends in oil and commodities in international market in the current fiscal year.In absolute terms, import of these commodities is projected at $19.16bn in the current fiscal year as against $17.906bn for the outgoing fiscal year, suggested data compiled by the Planning Commission of Pakistan.

The share of these two commodities in the countrys total import bill is projected to edge up to 40.47 per cent in 2013-14 from 40pc in the outgoing fiscal year.But aside from being the main contributor to the trade gap in fiscal year 2012-13, rising import bill of these products not only made the country dependent on imports but also threatened its food sovereignty.
The import bill of eatables is projected at $3.201bn in fiscal year 2013-14 against $2.992bn over the previous year, reflecting an increase of 6.98pc.
Within food group import, the major contribution came from sugar, edible oil and pulses. The shortages in the production of onions and potatoes in 2012-13 would force the government to import these commodities to bridge their shortfall.
The wheat and sugarcane productions witnessed increase in 2012-13 which would be sufficient for consumption. Therefore, the government may not import wheat and sugar in the current fiscal year.
At the same time, edible oil import may witness an increase during the current fiscal year in quantity, value and per value terms.
The import bill of palm oil is expected to rise because of projected increase in the international price, higher domestic demand and surge in import duty.
The oil import bill is projected at $15.959bn for the year 20113-14 as against $14.916bn from a year ago, reflecting an increase of 6.99pc.
Of these, import bill of petroleum products was projected at $10.026bn in 2013-14 as against $9.370bn for the outgoing fiscal year, showing an increase of 7pc.
Contrary to this, import bill of crude oil is projected at $5.933bn for the year 2013-14 as against $5.545bn for the outgoing fiscal year, showing an increase of 7.35pc.
The biggest factor for increase in demand for import of petroleum products was that refineries were not fully utilising their capacity